Waves and Cycles

Neil Lund

2024-11-12

Dependent contention

Scale shift means moving contention to “a higher or a lower level than its initiation”. Achieved through:

Widening opportunity, economic boom, postwar instability, youth bulge - among others - lead to heightened racial conflict in the U.S. in the 1950s/1960s

As Civil Rights activism increased, it also moved to new areas - such as the deep south - and invited greater institutional involvment (political parties, charitable organizations, churches, the left, white students etc.)

As the 60s progressed, new organizations/organizational forms arose to take advantage of the increased resources available for civil rights activism.

Tactical innovations (particularly sit-ins, boycotts, marches and other direct actions) proliferated and became normalized by the 1970s and later more militant activism took their place

New Civil Rights movements - often deliberately modeled on AA Civil Rights - became more prominent in later decades.

Gains independence from France in 1956, led by Habib Bourguiba for the next three decades
Zine El Abidine Ben Ali takes power in a bloodless coup in 1987
Ben Ali briefly loosens restrictions on the press, but ultimately formalizes what were previously informal methods of repression

Characterized as a “police state” with poor economic growth, fractured civil society, and worsening corruption
- Tunisia probably more appropriate categorized as a weak hybrid state.
Further exacerbated by what was seen as the opulent lifestyle of Ben Ali and his family

December 17, 2010 Ali Bouazizi self-immolates after his wares are confiscated by police
Protests almost immediately after, some activists are arrested but released following a public outcry

Police reported to kill hundreds during escalating riots
January 13, 2011: Ben Ali promises not to run for office, but also imposes a state of emergency
January 14, 2011: Ben Ali flees to Saudi Arabia, Rachid Ghannouchi forms an interim government
May - June 2011: Ghannouchi resigns amid continued protests. Ben Ali convicted in absentia
October 2011: Tunisia holds parliamentary elections

Egypt: Mubarak resigns after losing military (and U.S.) support.
Libya: Qaddafi attempts to retain power. Qaddafi overthrown in a violent coup followed by two civil wars.
Yemen: Saleh steps down in exchange for immunity. Later factional fighting ultimately leads to civil war that is ongoing today.
Syria: Assad initially flees, but ultimately holds on through subsequent civil war.
Bahrain: King Hamad declares a three month state of emergency. Holds on to power

Heightened conflict: sudden emergence of protest in a repressive state
Geographic and sectoral diffusion: expansion to Libya and Syria. Involvement of western powers.
New actors: labor/civil society organizations, “political Islam” organizations and parties
Expansion of the repertoire: regime change, occupy-style protests, civil war (Syria and Libya)
New claims: political Islam, in particular, emerged as an important cleavage in multiple states

Why does protest spread? Are there predictable patterns to these events?
What causes it to end? When does it result in revolution vs. civil war vs. failure? Are certain movements more likely to succeed?