Waves and Cycles

Neil Lund

2024-11-12

Dependent contention

Scale shift

Scale shift means moving contention to “a higher or a lower level than its initiation”. Achieved through:

  • Coordination

  • Brokerage

  • Claim shifts

  • Identity shifts

The cycle of contention

  1. Heightened conflict

  2. Geographic and sectoral diffusion

  3. Organizational emergence

  4. New frames and identities

  5. Expansion of the repertoire

1960s

  • Widening opportunity, economic boom, postwar instability, youth bulge - among others - lead to heightened racial conflict in the U.S. in the 1950s/1960s

Sectoral/Geographic Diffusion

  • As Civil Rights activism increased, it also moved to new areas - such as the deep south - and invited greater institutional involvment (political parties, charitable organizations, churches, the left, white students etc.)

New groups

  • As the 60s progressed, new organizations/organizational forms arose to take advantage of the increased resources available for civil rights activism.

Expanded Repertoire

  • Tactical innovations (particularly sit-ins, boycotts, marches and other direct actions) proliferated and became normalized by the 1970s and later more militant activism took their place

New claims and identities

  • New Civil Rights movements - often deliberately modeled on AA Civil Rights - became more prominent in later decades.

Color Revolutions

Revolutions of 1848

Arab Spring

Arab Spring

Background: Tunisia

  • Gains independence from France in 1956, led by Habib Bourguiba for the next three decades
  • Zine El Abidine Ben Ali takes power in a bloodless coup in 1987
  • Ben Ali briefly loosens restrictions on the press, but ultimately formalizes what were previously informal methods of repression

Background: Tunisia

Background: Tunisia

  • Characterized as a “police state” with poor economic growth, fractured civil society, and worsening corruption
    • Tunisia probably more appropriate categorized as a weak hybrid state.
  • Further exacerbated by what was seen as the opulent lifestyle of Ben Ali and his family

Arab Spring in Tunisia

  • December 17, 2010 Ali Bouazizi self-immolates after his wares are confiscated by police

  • Protests almost immediately after, some activists are arrested but released following a public outcry

Arab Spring in Tunisia

  • Police reported to kill hundreds during escalating riots

  • January 13, 2011: Ben Ali promises not to run for office, but also imposes a state of emergency

  • January 14, 2011: Ben Ali flees to Saudi Arabia, Rachid Ghannouchi forms an interim government

  • May - June 2011: Ghannouchi resigns amid continued protests. Ben Ali convicted in absentia

  • October 2011: Tunisia holds parliamentary elections

Arab Spring: Diffusion

  • January 14, 2011: initial unrest in Libya and Jordan

  • January 17, 2011: initial unrest in Egypt

  • January 24, 2011: protests in Yemen

  • February 14, 2011: protests in Bahrain

Arab Spring: Trajectories

  • Egypt: Mubarak resigns after losing military (and U.S.) support.

  • Libya: Qaddafi attempts to retain power. Qaddafi overthrown in a violent coup followed by two civil wars.

  • Yemen: Saleh steps down in exchange for immunity. Later factional fighting ultimately leads to civil war that is ongoing today.

  • Syria: Assad initially flees, but ultimately holds on through subsequent civil war.

  • Bahrain: King Hamad declares a three month state of emergency. Holds on to power

Arab Spring: Outcomes for Tunisia

The cycle

  1. Heightened conflict: sudden emergence of protest in a repressive state
  2. Geographic and sectoral diffusion: expansion to Libya and Syria. Involvement of western powers.
  3. New actors: labor/civil society organizations, “political Islam” organizations and parties
  4. Expansion of the repertoire: regime change, occupy-style protests, civil war (Syria and Libya)
  5. New claims: political Islam, in particular, emerged as an important cleavage in multiple states

Issues

  • Why does protest spread? Are there predictable patterns to these events?

  • What causes it to end? When does it result in revolution vs. civil war vs. failure? Are certain movements more likely to succeed?