2024-11-12
Scale shift means moving contention to “a higher or a lower level than its initiation”. Achieved through:
Coordination
Brokerage
Claim shifts
Identity shifts
Heightened conflict
Geographic and sectoral diffusion
Organizational emergence
New frames and identities
Expansion of the repertoire

December 17, 2010 Ali Bouazizi self-immolates after his wares are confiscated by police
Protests almost immediately after, some activists are arrested but released following a public outcry
Police reported to kill hundreds during escalating riots
January 13, 2011: Ben Ali promises not to run for office, but also imposes a state of emergency
January 14, 2011: Ben Ali flees to Saudi Arabia, Rachid Ghannouchi forms an interim government
May - June 2011: Ghannouchi resigns amid continued protests. Ben Ali convicted in absentia
October 2011: Tunisia holds parliamentary elections
January 14, 2011: initial unrest in Libya and Jordan
January 17, 2011: initial unrest in Egypt
January 24, 2011: protests in Yemen
February 14, 2011: protests in Bahrain
Egypt: Mubarak resigns after losing military (and U.S.) support.
Libya: Qaddafi attempts to retain power. Qaddafi overthrown in a violent coup followed by two civil wars.
Yemen: Saleh steps down in exchange for immunity. Later factional fighting ultimately leads to civil war that is ongoing today.
Syria: Assad initially flees, but ultimately holds on through subsequent civil war.
Bahrain: King Hamad declares a three month state of emergency. Holds on to power
Why does protest spread? Are there predictable patterns to these events?
What causes it to end? When does it result in revolution vs. civil war vs. failure? Are certain movements more likely to succeed?